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Thread: Covid-19, non-football discussions

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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by gilligan View Post
    Your ignorance is stunning. The #1 real world application of exponential growth curves is to model the spread of viruses.
    Gilligan, this virus does NOT grow exponentially. The data from all over the world shows that.

    If you hear an "expert" say that it grows exponentially then you're listening to someone who either doesn't know what they are talking about or is deliberately trying to scare people. That's just a fact. There is too much data available now for anyone to argue otherwise.

    Clarification from the link GHF shared:

    After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential”.

    This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modelled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth ... But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.
    Look at the curves of Sweden, New York, Britain, northern Italy, etc. and you will see they resemble a Gompertz curve with fast but less than exponential growth, then a slow decline over a period much longer than the period of growth.
    Last edited by peter.gryphon; 2020-08-27 at 13:42. Reason: clarification
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